The Causal Probabilistic Relationship Between Economic Development and Democracy: Evidence from Bayesian Networks Analysis

The present work analyzes the evolution of thinking that drives political scientists and economists vis-a-vis relationship between a regime development. This article addresses important question whether democracy promotes economic development helps to provide powerful framework for results autocracy democracy. Given relations democratic transition growth are fairly complex with uncertain results, we used probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, which is an ideal tool modeling uncertainty. In fact, selected sample includes 11 countries1 MENA region. We note Libya has 92.9% high average incomes 7.14% low incomes; therefore GNI nonlinear convex. However, predicting change scenarios shows level income in Bahrain non-linear concave, since its economy composed 71.4% 28.6% higher incomes. For remaining countries, found whatever democracy, levels remain same.